Timothée Chalamet now leads the 2026 Best Actor Oscar race with a 62% win probability on Gold Derby’s experts chart, leaving behind Hollywood titans in the awards-season dust. Yes, at just 29, Chalamet has soared to the top of the Best Actor odds for his ferocious, kinetic performance in Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, leaving icons like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis trailing in the charts, at least for now.
The favorites for the Best Actor Oscar.
Who would you like to see win? pic.twitter.com/4tLcrNfhMd
The tides of Oscar season have shifted dramatically, and it didn’t take a finished film, a glitzy red carpet, or even full reviews to do it, just a surprise screening and a flurry of breathless social media reactions. What makes this more electrifying? The Oscar narrative, once dominated by safe bets like DiCaprio’s One Battle After Another and Day-Lewis’ Anemone, has been hijacked by a ping-pong epic, part fever dream, part sports biopic, all chaos.
Marty Supreme First Reactions: Timothée Chalamet Serves Career-Best Performance in Josh Safdie’s Movie
Timothée Chalamet has officially uncorked his most unhinged and electrifying performance yet, and critics are devouring it. Marty Supreme, directed solo by Josh Safdie (of Uncut Gems and Good Time fame), stormed the New York Film Festival as a surprise screening, instantly reshaping the Best Actor conversation.
Playing Marty Mauser, a ping pong prodigy with more ambition than self-control, Chalamet gives a performance described as “the performance of a lifetime,” “career-best,” and “no-holds-barred.” Critics have compared the film’s energy to a deranged cocktail of Catch Me If You Can and Uncut Gems (per Variety).
The Hollywood Reporter’s David Canfield wrote:
MARTY SUPREME: Major, exhilarating filmmaking from Josh Safdie. Timothée Chalamet’s career-best performance—he was born to play this guy—with a tremendous Odessa A’Zion leading a superb supporting cast. It’s a wow.
Discussing Film chairman, Diego Andaluz posted:
MARTY SUPREME is Safdie’s best film yet. A kinetic odyssey that plays like a deranged cross between CATCH ME IF YOU CAN & UNCUT GEMS. Timothée Chalamet delivers the performance of a lifetime in this unforgettable, awe-inspiring cinematic tour-de-force that fires on all cylinders pic.twitter.com/ZGrfWGNYpo
“A piece of cinema,” echoed David Crow, calling it “drunk on the confidence of youth.”
Marty Supreme is an absolute blast of adrenaline and the follow-up to Uncut Gems we’ve been craving. Just as demented and tense, but drunk on the confidence of youth and the arrogance to believe that talent and charm is enough. As a piece of cinema it sure as hell is. #NYFF pic.twitter.com/AKGBIT6hX4
Matt Neglia dubbed it a “sprawling and electrifying sports epic,” while Liam T. Crowley gushed that Chalamet’s turn was akin to “Cody Rhodes at WrestleMania 40.”
MARTY SUPREME is a sprawling and electrifying sports epic bursting with vitality from the first frame to the last. Josh Safdie delivers a masterful slice of organized chaos on a larger scale he’s ever worked with before, propelling us through Marty’s relentless quest to prove to… pic.twitter.com/Ll3zrJnqEB
#MartySupreme is the best film of the year. Like oh my God. All the signature Safdie manic energy perfectly infused with the GENERATIONAL CHARISMA of the prince who is promised. Chalamet’s Cody Rhodes WrestleMania 40 performance. iykyk. I LOVE MAJOR MOTION PICTURES. @screenrant pic.twitter.com/lLtblE5lp7
The supporting cast, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary, Fran Drescher, Abel Ferrara, Tyler the Creator, adds another layer of eccentricity to this already-chaotic canvas. A24 is betting big on Marty Supreme, pegging it as their major Christmas Day release and one of their most expensive original films to date.
And if the Academy eats up the same adrenaline-drenched chaos that powered Uncut Gems, then Chalamet might finally grab the golden statue.
Leonardo DiCaprio & Daniel Day-Lewis’ New Movies Put Them Squarely In 2026 Best Actor Oscar Race
Make no mistake, Timothée Chalamet isn’t steamrolling nobodies. He’s squaring off against living legends. Leonardo DiCaprio has delivered another showstopper with One Battle After Another, playing the role of Bob in what many see as one of the year’s strongest Best Picture contenders.
Then there’s Daniel Day-Lewis. His return to cinema after an eight-year hiatus in Anemone comes with all the gravitas you’d expect. However, early reviews have been lukewarm, and with Anemone currently scoring a 54% on Rotten Tomatoes, the Oscar winner may be facing more than just competition.
Dwayne Johnson also entered the race swinging hard with The Smashing Machine, transforming into real-life MMA fighter Mark Kerr. Below are all the contenders (per Gold Derby chart):
The awards race is as fickle as ever. Chalamet is currently riding the high of glowing reactions. However, Marty Supreme hasn’t been reviewed in full, and surprises can emerge in December, especially from actors with the kind of Hollywood legacy that DiCaprio and Day-Lewis possess.
But we want to hear from you: Is Chalamet peaking too early? Has a new Oscar king truly been crowned? Drop your wildest Best Actor predictions in the comments below!
Marty Supreme will release in theaters on December 25, 2025.
Anemone goes wide via Focus Features on October 10, 2025.
One Battle After Another was released on September 26, 2025.
